Season Preview: Edmonton Oilers

Season Preview: Edmonton Oilers

In McDavid we Trust

After a promising 2016-17 campaign, the Oilers couldn’t build on their success and missed the playoffs. Hope is still abundant in Edmonton, however, and it will be as long as Connor McDavid is in town. McDavid led the league in points and is one of the most dynamic offensive forces in the league. As long as he plays in Edmonton, there will be optimism.

Report Card:

It was a strange season for the Edmonton Oilers. They should have scored a lot more than they did and they defended reasonably well. The special teams and goaltending sank them with the latter receiving a D grade in process and result. The good news, with even average special teams and goaltending, this team should be able to compete for a playoff spot.

What went right:

Connor McDavid has removed any doubt that he’s the best offensive player in the NHL. He led the league in points, controlled entries, and rush scoring chances, while also finishing 2nd in passes to the slot, 4th in shots from the slot, and 6th in goals. Even more impressive, his 84 even-strength points led the NHL by a wide margin and was the most of any player since the mid 90s. The next closest player was Claude Giroux, with 66. Leon Draisaitl was also a force to be reckoned with, reaching the 70-point mark for the second year in a row and pacing the NHL in even-strength passes to the slot per-20 minutes of ice-time.

What Went Wrong:

Edmonton’s two offensive cornerstones more than did their part, but the Oilers still couldn’t make the playoffs, so what happened? For starters, the powerplay was terrible, finishing dead last in the NHL at a paltry 14.8%, a far cry from their top-five finish the year before (22.9%). When on the man advantage, the Oilers failed to get quality shots at a high rate, as only 43% of their powerplay shots came from the slot, 5th lowest in the NHL. For context, Pittsburgh’s league-leading powerplay saw 53.5% of its shots coming from the middle of the ice, 3rd most in the league. Their shorthanded play was also problematic, finishing 25th on the penalty kill. The goalies shoulder a lot of blame in this area as they posted the 2nd worst PK save %. Defensively, the Oilers were in the top half of the league in terms of quality shots against and passes to the middle of the ice.

Offseason moves

Key Additions: Jakub Jerabek, Tobias Rieder, Kyle Brodziak, Mikko Koskinen

Key Departures: Eric Gryba, Laurent Brossoit

Other Key moves: PTO for Scottie Upshall, Jason Garrison, Alex Chiasson, Re-signed Ryan Strome

This was a very quiet offseason in Edmonton. The Oilers lost Eric Gryba, who shuffled between the NHL and AHL or was simply a healthy scratch throughout the season. Laurent Brossoit left, but they brought in Mikko Koskinen, a former second-round pick who spent the last five years in the KHL. During his time in Russia, Koskinen won two Gagarin Cups (the KHL’s Championship), while also winning two silver medals for Finland during the 2014 and 2016 World Championships. If he struggles in the NHL or pulls a Vadim Shipachyov and returns to the KHL, Edmonton still has Al Montoya as an insurance policy.

Edmonton brought in a few players to shore up its depth. Jakub Jerabek is coming in after splitting last season between the AHL’s Laval Rocket, the Canadiens, and the Capitals, who made him a healthy scratch for all but two games during their playoff run. Tobias Rieder has yet to cross the 40-point mark in his career but could benefit from playing with Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl, if Todd McLellan decides to give him a chance in the top-6. Kyle Brodziak should be a bottom-6 player who can contribute on the penalty kill. He ranked 13th among forwards in shorthanded defensive plays per-2 minutes and won more shorthanded draws than any Oiler did last season.

Next season preview

What could go right?

If Edmonton can find some of the magic that got it to the playoffs in 2016-17, they will be a force to be reckoned with, once again. They still have the best offensive player in the game in McDavid. Cam Talbot is coming off a down year, but he showed in the two seasons prior he had the ability to be a talented starter, especially in 2016-17 where he allowed only 2.39 goals per game. Getting back to those kinds of numbers would go a long way towards getting Edmonton out of the bottom-5 in goals against.

Milan Lucic was also the target of criticism with his worst point total in a full season since he was a rookie. However, Lucic scored more even-strength points than he did the year prior (27 vs 25) and generated the same volume of quality shots on net. The biggest problem was his powerplay production, where he went from 25 to only 7 points, a microcosm of the team’s troubles. Fix the powerplay and Lucic has a chance to get back to scoring around 20 goals and 50 points.

What could go wrong?

If Edmonton isn’t able to fix its powerplay issues, it will likely be another tough season. Of the 12 teams with the most powerplay goals last season, 11 made the playoffs, with the lone exception being the Islanders. Coincidentally, only 2 of the bottom 12 teams (Anaheim and Columbus) made it to the postseason and they both got bounced in round one, so getting the special teams sorted out has to be priority number one for Todd McLellan and his new assistants.

Cam Talbot struggling again would also be a huge problem. After allowing over three goals per game last season, it’s easy to forget that Talbot finished 4th in Vezina voting in 2016-17. He clearly has the ability to be a number one goalie on a playoff team, but the Oilers need to get him some help. Talbot faced the 5th most inner slot shots per game in the NHL last season and was one of only five goalies to face over 2000 shots.

The Point Consensus 2018-19 Prediction: 6th in Pacific Division, 12th in Western Conference.