Big Changes in Carolina
The Hurricanes had a busy offseason. Rod Brind’Amour is the new Head Coach, Don Waddell is the new GM and Tom Dundon will see his first full season as the owner. The changes weren’t just limited to management either, as they pulled off one of the biggest trades of the summer, acquiring Dougie Hamilton. Can all these new faces bring the ‘Canes back to the playoffs?
Report Card:
The Hurricanes ranked highly in expected goals for and against and won the ‘Corsi Cup’ by a mile last season. However, the team once again lacked difference makers offensively and despite performing well defensively, were sunk by league-worst goaltending.
What went right:
Sebastian Aho built on a strong, 49-points rookie season with 29 goals and 65 points, finishing first on the team, one point ahead of his linemate Teuvo Teravainen, who also recorded a career-high 64 points. The Hurricanes have depth and youth on the blueline and are as skilled with the puck as they are active away from it. Carolina’s defenders teamed up for the 6th lowest turnover rate and highest takeaway rate in the NHL, as well as the 4th most successful defensive plays and the most possession driving plays.
What Went Wrong:
Scott Darling was brought in to be the starter after three solid years as a backup in Chicago but failed to deliver. Among the 34 goalies to play at least 2,000 minutes, he ranked 32nd in GAA (3.18) and dead last in save percentage (.888). Those numbers are even more concerning when looking at the team’s defensive performance. The Hurricanes were actually top-ten at even-strength in limiting scoring chances (8th), high danger scoring chances (7th) and passes to the slot (5th). The same story applies to their penalty kill, 24th in the league, where they allowed the 3rd fewest scoring chances, but their goalies could only combine for a .838 save percentage, 28th in the NHL.
Offseason moves
Key Additions: Dougie Hamilton, Calvin de Haan, Michael Ferland, Andrei Svechnikov, Jordan Martinook, Petr Mrazek
Key Departures: Elias Lindholm, Noah Hanifin, Jeff Skinner, Cam Ward, Derek Ryan, Lee Stempniak, Marcus Kruger
Other Key moves: Fired Bill Peters, hired Rod Brind’Amour, re-signed Trevor van Riemsdyk, PTO for Michal Cajkovsky
The Hurricanes made waves this off-season. They fired Bill Peters and hired Rod Brind’Amour to be their new head coach. Then, they pulled off a blockbuster with the Flames, acquiring superstar defenseman Dougie Hamilton and forward Michael Ferland in exchange for Noah Hanifin and Elias Lindholm, reuniting them with Peters, who is now coaching the Flames. They also moved former 30-goal scorer Jeff Skinner to Buffalo for an underwhelming return of prospect Cliff Pu and draft picks. They also named veteran Justin Williams as their new captain.
In free agency, they signed former Detroit and Philadelphia goalie Petr Mrazek to back-up (or start in front of?) Scott Darling, replacing longtime goalie Cam Ward, who moved to Chicago. Calvin de Haan also joins an already very strong defensive unit. Even though he missed more than half the season with a shoulder injury, his per 20 numbers at even strength looked great. Among defensemen, de Haan ranked 5th in stretch pass accuracy on the 8th most attempts while also ranking 8th in successful defensive plays in his own end. On offense, they mostly shuffled depth players, losing defensive forwards Derek Ryan and Marcus Kruger and adding Jordan Martinook.
Next season preview
What could go right?
Their blueline, already one of the strongest in the NHL, was made even stronger with the addition of Hamilton and de Haan. With Jeff Skinner gone, Aho should now be the main focus of the Hurricanes’ offense, while young players like Valentin Zykov, Andrei Svechnikov, and Martin Necas could potentially be impact players this season, giving them a young and exciting forward group. Svechnikov, in particular, will be interesting to watch as he was the most dynamic offensive player available in the 2018 NHL Draft – something Carolina was in desperate need of. The Hurricanes need to get at least league average goaltending if they want to find themselves in the playoff mix late in the season.
What could go wrong?
A lot rests on the shoulders of Scott Darling for the Hurricanes. They have no chance of making the playoffs if he is again the worst goalie in the NHL. Their already strong defense is even better and there’s not much more they can do to help him establish himself as a starter. If Darling can’t bounce back, they’ll have to rely on newly acquired Petr Mrazek, who hasn’t proven he can be a full-time starter in the NHL either.
Scoring could also be hard to come by again for the Hurricanes, after finishing 23rd in goals for. Even though Jeff Skinner had a down year with only 24 goals and 49 points, he was still their leader in scoring chances by a mile. He ranked 13th in the NHL in slot shots on net with 150, significantly more than Aho’s 97, which ranked 2nd in Carolina. They also lost Elias Lindholm, who had 94 slot shots on net, which is interestingly enough the same amount as incoming Michael Ferland had. It’s important to note, however, that Ferland played almost exclusively with Sean Monahan and superstar Johnny Gaudreau, which helped his numbers, while Lindholm was shuffled across the lineup throughout the whole season and there isn’t a forward as talented as Gaudreau on the Hurricanes, at least not yet. Svechnikov, Zykov, and Necas all have promise, but there’s no guarantee they can shoulder a heavy load this season. They will also be without Victor Rask to start the season. The center injured his hand and is out indefinitely.
Another big question is why teams are willing to give up on Hamilton so easily. It’s rare to see a 25-year-old defenseman, who has over 40 points in each of his last 4 seasons, to be playing for his third team. It could just be a matter of luck but it’s definitely something worth keeping an eye on with Hamilton joining an already strong defensive unit.
Winning the shot attempt battle, which Carolina did by a far greater margin than any other team, isn’t enough. The Corsi Canes still missed the playoffs last season by 14 points for two main reasons. Lack of game-breaking talent up front and bottom the league caliber goaltending. Carolina hasn’t done enough to address these issues to be a playoff favorite in the Eastern Conference.