A Bright Future in Buffalo
The Sabres had yet another tough season. They finished last in the NHL and were among the worst teams in most metrics, but all of this will be worth it if young players like Casey Mittelstadt and, of course, Rasmus Dahlin, meet expectations. The future looks good in Buffalo, but a return to the playoffs may be a little too ambitious this season.
Report Card:
You’re not going to get into Harvard with grades like those listed above – or any school for that matter. But, the good news for Buffalo – the future is bright, very bright.
What went right:
Jack Eichel posted a career high in goals (25), assists (39) and points (64) despite playing only 67 games, a very encouraging sign for the Sabres. Casey Mittelstadt also impressed in a small sample size when he signed with the team at the end of his collegiate season, scoring five points in his first six games. Team-wise, Buffalo did a good job of protecting the inner slot, ranking 11th in limiting shots from that area, although that could just be a byproduct of giving up early leads and their opposition playing a less aggressive game.
What Went Wrong:
Plus/Minus isn’t the best statistic to measure team success, but Buffalo’s numbers are too bad to overlook. Only three players managed to have a positive rating and they combined for only 11 games between them. That means 32 of the 35 players to suit up for Buffalo last season finished with a negative differential, with Kyle Okposo posting the worst at -34, next to last in the league. As a team, Buffalo scored the fewest goals in the NHL while allowing the 3rd most. They also ranked last at even strength in slot shots for, inner slot shots for, and odd-man rushes for.
Offseason moves
Key Additions: Rasmus Dahlin, Jeff Skinner, Conor Sheary, Vladimir Sobotka, Patrik Berglund, Tage Thompson, Carter Hutton, Matt Hunwick
Key Departures: Robin Lehner, Ryan O’Reilly, Chad Johnson, Josh Gorges
OTHER KEY MOVES: None
Few teams were as busy overhauling their roster as the Sabres. They started off by using the first overall pick on potential franchise defenseman Rasmus Dahlin, who is expected to be on the opening night roster. They were active on the trade market, moving Ryan O’Reilly to St. Louis and getting Vladimir Sobotka, Patrik Berglund, Tage Thompson and picks in return, acquiring former 30-goal scorer Jeff Skinner on the cheap and receiving Conor Sheary and Matt Hunwick from Pittsburgh in what was essentially a salary dump. If you’re keeping count, that’s already seven NHL-caliber players (plus 1st and 2nd round picks) added to their roster in exchange for O’Reilly, prospect Cliff Pu, and picks, none of them first rounders – a pretty impressive haul. But GM Jason Botterill wasn’t done there, as he addressed the team’s problem in net by signing Carter Hutton, arguably the top goalie on the market. The former St. Louis Blues netminder led the NHL last season in save percentage and goals against average among goalies with 30+ games. Botterill still has some work to do with Sam Reinhart still a restricted free agent. All in all, despite losing O’Reilly, Buffalo is a lot deeper and more talented than they were last season.
Next season preview
What could go right?
If Skinner and Eichel can find chemistry together, they’re going to be a very dangerous duo. The three-time 30-goal scorer is probably the most talented linemate Buffalo’s franchise player has had in his career so far and he should be eager to up his value in a contract year. Casey Mittelstadt looked great in his first taste of NHL action and he will be given every opportunity to fill the 2nd line center role left vacant by O’Reilly’s departure. There’s no such thing as a sure thing when it comes to rookies, but Dahlin is as close as you can get. If anything, it seems like a near lock that the Sabres will take a step forward next season. After finishing 31st, there’s nowhere to go but up, right?
What could go wrong?
Having this level of personnel turnover in just one offseason, the biggest challenge that Buffalo faces is chemistry. How are all these new faces going to fit together? Phil Housley is going to have a lot on his plate to make sure his team is on the same page as fast as possible. There are also questions surrounding their newly acquired starting goalie, Carter Hutton. He was a career backup before breaking out last season on a St. Louis team that had really good defenders in front of him. As a team, Buffalo gave up nearly three more slot shots per game than St. Louis (11.3 vs 14.2) and five more total shots per game. Already 32, is he a late bloomer a la Tim Thomas or is he just a one year wonder? Buffalo made an $8m+ bet over three years on the former, we will have to wait and see if it pays off.