Lost in the Shuffle?
Vegas and San Jose made a splash in the off-season, acquiring star players. Can the Ducks still compete for a top-3 spot in the Pacific?
Report Card:
When you get an A+ in team defense and a D+ in expected goals against – that’s a good indication that your goalie was your MVP. It appears the Ducks overperformed offensively and more so, defensively last season with John Gibson bailing them out regularly. Gibson may have masked some deeper issues with this team last season.
What went right:
The key to Anaheim’s success was its defensive execution. The Ducks allowed the 2nd fewest goals against and ranked 10th in limiting inner slot shots at even strength, which helped them achieve the league’s second-best team save percentage. In fact, all three goalies who suited up last season had save percentages of at least .926. John Gibson may not have been a Vezina Trophy finalist but of all goalies on the outside looking in, he may have had the strongest case. Solid defense and goaltending also combined to help them achieve the league’s 5th best penalty kill.
What Went Wrong:
Injuries sapped a lot of the Ducks’ offensive firepower last season, culminating in a four-game sweep against the Sharks in which they only scored four goals. Patrick Eaves played only two games before a health scare shut down his season. Ryan Getzlaf, Cam Fowler, and Ryan Kesler all missed chunks of time, with Kesler missing nearly half the season. When looking at per 20 even strength numbers from last year compared to 2016-17, Kesler saw a drop in several categories, including OZ possession time (0:22 to 0:16), scoring chances (2.01 to 1.58) and pass attempts to the slot (2.4 to 2.0). This is especially concerning since he will be 34-years old before the season starts and still has 4 years left on his contract. Corey Perry has also shown continued signs of decline, failing to reach 20 goals the past two years after hitting 30 in 6 of the previous 7 seasons, the lone exception being the lockout-shortened season.
Offseason moves
Key Additions: Andrej Sustr, Brian Gibbons, Luke Schenn
Key Departures: Kevin Bieksa, François Beauchemin, Antoine Vermette
Other Key moves: Extended John Gibson and Adam Henrique, re-signed Brandon Montour
The Ducks decided to double down on their core with extensions to John Gibson and Adam Henrique and a new contract for a promising young defenceman in Brandon Montour. Their defensive corps is one of the strongest in the league with their top-4 all 26-years old or younger. They also have talented youngsters in the system, with Nick Ritchie, Sam Steel, Maxime Comtois and 20-goal scorer Ondrej Kase, among others, all 22 or younger. With Perry, Getzlaf, and Kesler getting deeper into their 30’s, Anaheim’s window to win with them is now, but with the youth behind them, they appear to have a solid plan in place for the next era of Ducks hockey, as well.
Next season preview
What could go right?
With a quiet off-season in terms of additions, the Ducks will rely on internal progression from their youngsters and better health from their veterans. The Ritchie-Henrique-Kase line, in particular, was dangerous last season and could be poised for a big year. In over 350 minutes together, they scored 17 goals and allowed only five. That ratio (77.3% of goals for while on the ice), was the 9th best of any line that played at least 100 minutes together. Kase, in particular, had a great season, leading the team in even-strength goals scored per 20, as well as ranking top-2 in rush chances on net, completed OZ passes, controlled entries, and offensive rebounds recovered, all even strength per 20.
The Ducks still boast all the key pieces that made it difficult to score on them last season. The Ducks have proven goal scorers and a full season of Ryan Getzlaf, still a premier center, should make offense a little easier to come by.
What could go wrong?
A concern for the Ducks is the sustainability of their penalty kill performance. They did rank 5th, but they also allowed the 5th most slot shots and rode a hot performance from their goalies, who recorded the 3rd best save % while shorthanded. Though shorthanded save percentage hasn’t been proven to be a repeatable skill, Gibson is one of the top goalies in the league and will help bolster the team’s overall penalty kill percentage. If Kesler does miss significant time, he will be missed on the PK as he was the Ducks 2nd most used forward in shorthanded ice-time per game.
The Ducks also need to generate more goals. Rackell had a great year with 34 goals and Henrique scored 20 after the trade with New Jersey, but Anaheim still only managed to finish 19th in goals for. They need scorers to step up, either by having young guys like Kase and Ritchie take a step forward or veterans like Perry, Getzlaf or even Eaves have bounce-back years. If they can’t, Gibson will have to be on top of his game once again to steal games for them. Gibson has had injury troubles in the past, so if he goes down and the Ducks can’t score, they would be left relying on 38-year-old Ryan Miller night-in and night-out, which is less than ideal.