Murphy’s Law in Ottawa
It feels like everything that could go wrong for the Senators, did. A disgruntled fanbase, a mid-season trade that could end up costing them the first overall pick, off-ice scandals, trading the best player in franchise history. It looks like this will be another tough season for Senators fans.
Report Card:
Not a top-20 ranking to be found. The Senators 2017-18 season was a failure.
What went right:
It took Matt Duchene a while to find his game in Ottawa, but he did finish the season on a tear. Duchene scored 34 points in as many games from February to the end of the season, including 16 goals. At even-strength, he ranked top-10 in the NHL in offensive zone possession time, scoring chance generation plays, and goals in that span. Mark Stone, meanwhile, was on pace for a career year before his season was cut short in March, ultimately finishing with 62 points, two shy of his career-high.
Another player with a strong showing was rookie defenceman Thomas Chabot. Among all defensemen, he ranked third in goals per-20 minutes of even-strength play, tied with Ivan Provorov. Among Senators blueliners, he trailed only Erik Karlsson in offensive zone possession time, scoring chance generation plays, and completed passes, again per-20 minutes of even-strength play, showing some good puck moving skills.
What Went Wrong:
The Senators couldn’t stop a nosebleed last season. They allowed the 2nd most scoring chances, which led to 3.46 goals against per game, 2nd most in the NHL. Craig Anderson had his worst season in over a decade, playing behind a porous defense. The Senators powerplay struggled as well, failing to get passes to the slot (last in the NHL) or quality shots (29th in slot shots). Ultimately, Ottawa missed the playoffs by a staggering 30 points, recording more regulation losses than wins each month from November to the end of the season.
Offseason moves
Key Additions: Mikkel Boedker, Dylan Demelo, Chris Tierney, Josh Norris
Key Departures: Mike Hoffman, Erik Karlsson
Other Key moves: Re-signed Mark Stone, Cody Ceci, Chris Wideman
Ottawa’s off-season has been a mess. The less said about the Karlsson-Hoffman situation the better. In response to that, they traded Mike Hoffman for an underwhelming return only to see the Sharks flip him to the Panthers for more on the same day. They then failed to reach a long-term agreement with Mark Stone, settling on a one-year, $7.35M contract to avoid arbitration. At the end of that one-year contract, Stone will be an unrestricted free agent, so this could be his last year in the Canadian capital. Later in the offseason, Erik Karlsson was also sent out to the Sharks, who decided to keep him this time, along with Francis Perron. In return, Ottawa receives first and second round picks, Dylan DeMelo, Chris Tierney, Josh Norris, Rudolfs Balcers and conditional picks. Sending away one of the best defensemen in the NHL without getting any elite prospects and just one first-round pick has to be disappointing for Senators fans, but it still beats watching him leave for nothing in free agency or losing leverage as the season goes on.
Ottawa couldn’t avoid arbitration with defenceman Cody Ceci, who was awarded a one-year / $4.3M deal. Ceci played big minutes for the Senators against tough competition but the jury is still out on whether he’s a $4M+ player. Ceci’s decision making in the defensive end can be better, as he ranked 125th in defensive zone turnover rate among 136 defensemen who played 1000+ minutes.
As part of the Duchene trade, Ottawa had the option to keep its 2018 or 2019 1st round pick, with the other going to Colorado. The Senators elected to keep their 2018 pick at 4th overall, selecting Brady Tkachuk. Tkachuk signed his entry-level deal, choosing to forfeit his college eligibility, which makes him eligible to play in either the NHL, AHL or for the OHL’s London Knights. This, however, means that next year’s 1st round pick will go to the Avalanche unprotected and it should be a high one.
Next season preview
What could go right?
Optimism is hard to find for the Senators, but some good news came in early September when Matt Duchene said he’d love to stick with the Senators long-term. As mentioned, Duchene played well to close out the season, however, his most common linemate was Mike Hoffman, who is now in Florida.
There should be plenty of opportunity for youngsters like Brady Tkachuk, Logan Brown and others to gain experience at the NHL level. Brown is coming off a season that saw him rack up 48 points in only 32 games in the OHL. The 2017 first round pick will be looking to crack the lineup as a middle-six center and, when looking at the Sens depth chart, there is plenty of opportunity for him, especially after Jean-Gabriel Pageau’s injury. Thomas Chabot could also push for a bigger role with Karlsson now gone. If we exclude the Swede’s All-World numbers and look at the other blueliners on the roster, Chabot had some solid performances. He led the remaining players in scoring chance generating plays, controlled exits, and points.
What could go wrong?
As bad as things were last season, they are likely to be worse this year. The Senators didn’t add any significant free agents to bolster their immediate future, while moving Hoffman for Mikkel Boedker is a clear downgrade offensively, as Hoffman is a four-time 20-goal scorer while Boedker has a career-high of 19. The Erik Karlsson trade made an already struggling defense worse. Already at the bottom of the league in goals against (30th) and with a 37-year old goalie coming off the worst season of his Senators tenure, Ottawa could be the first team to allow more than 300 goals in a season since 2005-06. 2nd line center J.G. Pageau will miss six months with a torn Achilles tendon. As if that wasn’t enough, Matt Duchene and Mark Stone are both unrestricted free agents at the end of the season and there is no guarantee they will re-sign with the team. And with their pick going to Colorado, the Senators won’t be rewarded with a high draft pick for what is likely to be a lost season.